Thursday, February 14, 2008

Greed is right, greed works.

To all people who are certainly not happy with the money they are making...

For the last one year or more I have been inflicting my investment ideas and views on the markets on a group of close chums through a mailing list! As an alternative to adding more people to my mailing list, I am moving my investment/personal finance ideas mails to a blog format today, the 14th of February. Quite an auspicious day, I must say, Sensex just closed 800 points up around 5%!

Like my mails, this would not be periodic but sporadic depending on the kind of investment ideas that I read about or get from somewhere. No idea in this post is original... Everything has been lifted from or inspired by original research done by others. And of course, I would try and give credit or better still, hyperlinks to the original source. I try and collate ideas from disparate sources and present it here...I would appreciate questions, feedback and better still fresh investment ideas! Also this blog is meant for the lay investor and hence I have tried to avoid the financial gobbledygook and kept the numbers simple!

So what is in store for equities now that the markets are listless and future seems bleak? (Despite the last two days' rise!) Well nothing at all! Equities as an asset class have never been bad! I can't imagine any other asset class where a good stock picker with discipline can average around 25+% return YOY! Remember what counts is the companies we invest in and not where the Nifty or Sensex are headed! Warren Buffet goes even further to say that equity markets are not so affected even by the performance of the country's economy as much by the interest rates! And Indian rates are probably on their way down in the next few years! Note the use of the word 'Probably'!

Moreover a period of uncertainty as is now prevalent is probably the best time to enter equities. We now have time to review companies, their performance over a couple of quarters etc without the market running away! I am sure each of us have been in a position where we had decided to buy a stock at a Rs 120 levels and see it run away to Rs 210 levels by the time we actually found the money. Well that's not going to happen in the near future! We have the luxury of time to stop and think about planning our investments before crazy things happen. I remember a similar such period in 2002 when some of the best performers of the last decade were analyzed and recommended. To name a few. UTI Bank at Rs 29. J&K Bank at Rs 11, Bajaj Auto at Rs 600 etc!

Currently I like Sanghvi Movers. (CMP 251). This company is an excellent play on India's infrastructure story and construction boom. They rent construction equipment like cranes etc to other companies. Last quarter (Q308) they clocked a growth of 111% in their profits and 65% growth in their sales! Most of their fleet of their cranes is booked for the next two years or so. It is reasonable to expect a 30-40 % growth rate over the next 3 years considering their aggressive capex plans. And thanks to the recent correction is available at a reasonable valuation. One should look to more than double his/her money in a couple of years! Not bad, eh! So you forgo an Apple I phone today, you are looking at an I phone plus a decent LCD TV two years down the line! Happy Investing!

12 comments:

Vinod said...

Cool blog!! Guess this is your way of saying don't pester me for ideas any more, just keep checking my blog!!!

Anyway, you have one regular visitor at least in me!! Keep posting!!

As Mr.Gekko said, Greed is good!! :-)

Vinod said...

But I'd still rather have the iPhone now!! :-)

Aarthi Srinath said...

Nice blog! You sure have one regular visitor!

quizzerix said...

good effort. be at it regularly.

Anonymous said...
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Deviprasad V said...

Thanks Vinod. The I phone is cool but the delayed gratification is what separates the super rich from the rest of us...

Deviprasad V said...

Thanks Aarthi..Will be regular.. watch this space.

Deviprasad V said...

Thanks Ramana.. have an idea will post next week...hope I get ideas regularly

Unknown said...

Very nice pick. Really company is fundamently very strong. Be regualar on blog...

Deviprasad V said...

Thanks Kedia.It would pay to be patient with this company.

Unknown said...

Thanks for the tip! Delayed gratification takes a lot of will power :)

Deviprasad V said...

Yes Winnie it does. But read my next post as well. Talks about enjoying small indulgences